Vulnerability Analysis of Interdependent Critical Infrastructures upon a Cyber-attack
- Ahmed Abdelgawad, Centre for Integrated Emergency Management (CIEM), University of Agder, Grimstad, Norway
- Tor-Edin Farstad, Centre for Integrated Emergency Management (CIEM), University of Agder, Grimstad, Norway
- Jose Gonzalez, Centre for Integrated Emergency Management (CIEM), University of Agder, Grimstad, Norway
AbstractThere is an extensive literature on modelling cascading effects in Critical Infrastructures (CIs). Concerning the cascading impacts of a cyber-attack upon other CIs, a detailed scenario analysis done by the Norwegian Directorate of Civil Protection concludes that a considerable impact could be achieved. However, the analysis admits that the probability of the attack would be very low, since it would require considerable expertise and resources. We argue that a smart attacker could exploit existing knowledge on cascading impacts to plan for perfidiously-timed cyber-attacks requiring low resources that would achieve a significant disruption of CIs. To illustrate our point, we build and simulate a highly-aggregated system dynamics model using estimates of disruptions effects across CIs taken from the literature.
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